Anatomy of the atmospheric emissions from the transport sector in Greece: trends and challenges

Emissions of atmospheric pollutants are well-known for their adverse effects on air quality and public health. Additionally, GHG emissions are responsible for the so called “Radiating Forcing” leading to climate change and degradation of ecosystem services. In this work, we analyze the annual emission trends of various air pollutants, including GHGs, from all 4 sectors of transport (roads, aviation, navigation, and railway) in Greece during the 28-year period between 1990 and 2017, in order to examine the confounding dynamics among external forces, such as the major fiscal recession of 2008, and the GHG/pollutant emissions in the country. The analysis is performed with a suite of statistical tools consisting of bivariate correlation analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimation, and Joinpoint regression analysis, in order to thoroughly study the trends of emissions. It is found that all transport sectors (except for the railway) show a significant increase in their emissions, despite the fiscal recession of 2008 that temporarily decelerated all aspects of economic activity in the country. Given the major share of transport in GHG emissions (37%) and air pollution in urban centers, it is essential that the road sector adapts to the new challenges, by means of switching to low-emission technologies and electromobilization. The same applies for the navigation and aviation sectors, which are known pillars of the tourist industry in the country. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-18062-5.