Incidence, Risk Factors and Prognosis of T4a Gastric Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Background: T4a gastric cancer (GC) is a subtype of advanced GC (AGC), which urgently needs a comprehensive grade method for better treatment strategy choosing. The purpose of this study was to develop two nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with T4a GC. Methods: A total of 1,129 patients diagnosed as T4a GC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) program database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore the independent predictors and to establish nomogram for overall survival (OS) of the patients, whereas competing risk analyses were performed to find the independent predictors and to establish nomogram for cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the patients. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier analysis were performed to evaluate the nomograms. Results: Older age, larger tumor size, black race, signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC), more lymph node involvement, the absence of surgery, the absence of radiotherapy, and the absence of chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the AUCs of the OS nomogram were 0.760, 0.743, and 0.723 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, whereas the AUCs of the CSS nomogram were 0.724, 0.703, and 0.713 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA indicated that both nomograms can effectively predict OS and CSS, respectively. The abovementioned results were also confirmed in the validation cohort. Stratification of the patients into high- and low-risk groups highlighted the differences in prognosis between the two groups both in training and in validation cohorts. Conclusions: Age, tumor size, race, histologic type, N stage, surgery status, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were confirmed as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS in patients with T4a GC. Two nomograms based on the abovementioned variables were constructed to provide more accurate individual survival predictions for them.