Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is one of the main factors affecting the distribution of I. scapularis. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing in the context of climate change and precipitation in May makes the greatest contribution to such expansion. ABSTRACT: Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.