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Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea

Background: Insulin resistance is a common etiology of metabolic syndrome, but receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis shows a weak association in Koreans. Using a machine learning (ML) approach, we aimed to generate the best model for predicting insulin resistance in Korean adults ag...

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Autores principales: Park, Sunmin, Kim, Chaeyeon, Wu, Xuangao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8774355/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35054379
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12010212
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author Park, Sunmin
Kim, Chaeyeon
Wu, Xuangao
author_facet Park, Sunmin
Kim, Chaeyeon
Wu, Xuangao
author_sort Park, Sunmin
collection PubMed
description Background: Insulin resistance is a common etiology of metabolic syndrome, but receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis shows a weak association in Koreans. Using a machine learning (ML) approach, we aimed to generate the best model for predicting insulin resistance in Korean adults aged > 40 of the Ansan/Ansung cohort using a machine learning (ML) approach. Methods: The demographic, anthropometric, biochemical, genetic, nutrient, and lifestyle variables of 8842 participants were included. The polygenetic risk scores (PRS) generated by a genome-wide association study were added to represent the genetic impact of insulin resistance. They were divided randomly into the training (n = 7037) and test (n = 1769) sets. Potentially important features were selected in the highest area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve from 99 features using seven different ML algorithms. The AUC target was ≥0.85 for the best prediction of insulin resistance with the lowest number of features. Results: The cutoff of insulin resistance defined with HOMA-IR was 2.31 using logistic regression before conducting ML. XGBoost and logistic regression algorithms generated the highest AUC (0.86) of the prediction models using 99 features, while the random forest algorithm generated a model with 0.82 AUC. These models showed high accuracy and k-fold values (>0.85). The prediction model containing 15 features had the highest AUC of the ROC curve in XGBoost and random forest algorithms. PRS was one of 15 features. The final prediction models for insulin resistance were generated with the same nine features in the XGBoost (AUC = 0.86), random forest (AUC = 0.84), and artificial neural network (AUC = 0.86) algorithms. The model included the fasting serum glucose, ALT, total bilirubin, HDL concentrations, waist circumference, body fat, pulse, season to enroll in the study, and gender. Conclusion: The liver function, regular pulse checking, and seasonal variation in addition to metabolic syndrome components should be considered to predict insulin resistance in Koreans aged over 40 years.
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spelling pubmed-87743552022-01-21 Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea Park, Sunmin Kim, Chaeyeon Wu, Xuangao Diagnostics (Basel) Article Background: Insulin resistance is a common etiology of metabolic syndrome, but receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis shows a weak association in Koreans. Using a machine learning (ML) approach, we aimed to generate the best model for predicting insulin resistance in Korean adults aged > 40 of the Ansan/Ansung cohort using a machine learning (ML) approach. Methods: The demographic, anthropometric, biochemical, genetic, nutrient, and lifestyle variables of 8842 participants were included. The polygenetic risk scores (PRS) generated by a genome-wide association study were added to represent the genetic impact of insulin resistance. They were divided randomly into the training (n = 7037) and test (n = 1769) sets. Potentially important features were selected in the highest area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve from 99 features using seven different ML algorithms. The AUC target was ≥0.85 for the best prediction of insulin resistance with the lowest number of features. Results: The cutoff of insulin resistance defined with HOMA-IR was 2.31 using logistic regression before conducting ML. XGBoost and logistic regression algorithms generated the highest AUC (0.86) of the prediction models using 99 features, while the random forest algorithm generated a model with 0.82 AUC. These models showed high accuracy and k-fold values (>0.85). The prediction model containing 15 features had the highest AUC of the ROC curve in XGBoost and random forest algorithms. PRS was one of 15 features. The final prediction models for insulin resistance were generated with the same nine features in the XGBoost (AUC = 0.86), random forest (AUC = 0.84), and artificial neural network (AUC = 0.86) algorithms. The model included the fasting serum glucose, ALT, total bilirubin, HDL concentrations, waist circumference, body fat, pulse, season to enroll in the study, and gender. Conclusion: The liver function, regular pulse checking, and seasonal variation in addition to metabolic syndrome components should be considered to predict insulin resistance in Koreans aged over 40 years. MDPI 2022-01-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8774355/ /pubmed/35054379 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12010212 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Park, Sunmin
Kim, Chaeyeon
Wu, Xuangao
Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title_full Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title_fullStr Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title_short Development and Validation of an Insulin Resistance Predicting Model Using a Machine-Learning Approach in a Population-Based Cohort in Korea
title_sort development and validation of an insulin resistance predicting model using a machine-learning approach in a population-based cohort in korea
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8774355/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35054379
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12010212
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