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A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021

Aiming to identify the potentially reduced malaria cases by stagnation of international traffic after the COVID-19 pandemic, a longitudinal analysis of malaria cases as well as entries of Japanese and foreigners was conducted using data from 5 April 1999 to 30 September 2021 in Japan. Multivariable...

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Autor principal: Noda, Hiroyuki
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8775555/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35055702
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880
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author Noda, Hiroyuki
author_facet Noda, Hiroyuki
author_sort Noda, Hiroyuki
collection PubMed
description Aiming to identify the potentially reduced malaria cases by stagnation of international traffic after the COVID-19 pandemic, a longitudinal analysis of malaria cases as well as entries of Japanese and foreigners was conducted using data from 5 April 1999 to 30 September 2021 in Japan. Multivariable risk ratios were calculated with the Poison regression model as a predictive model of malaria cases by the number of entries for Japanese and foreigners. A generalized regression model was used to examine an association of time trend with entries for Japanese and foreigners using data before 2019, to estimate the potentially reduced number of entries after 2020. The potentially reduced number of malaria cases was estimated by the potentially reduced number of entries for Japanese and foreigners after 2020 using a multivariable Poison regression model. The multivariable risk ratio (95% confidence intervals) of malaria case numbers per 100,000 persons increment of entries per day was 3.41 (1.50–7.77) for Japanese and 1.47 (0.92–2.35) for foreigners. During 2020, a potential reduction of 28 (95% confidence limit: 22–34) malaria cases was estimated, which accounted for 58% (52–63%) of malaria cases in Japan. These finding suggest that the stagnation of international traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of malaria cases in Japan. This model may be helpful for countries without indigenous malaria to predict future trends of imported malaria cases.
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spelling pubmed-87755552022-01-21 A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021 Noda, Hiroyuki Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Aiming to identify the potentially reduced malaria cases by stagnation of international traffic after the COVID-19 pandemic, a longitudinal analysis of malaria cases as well as entries of Japanese and foreigners was conducted using data from 5 April 1999 to 30 September 2021 in Japan. Multivariable risk ratios were calculated with the Poison regression model as a predictive model of malaria cases by the number of entries for Japanese and foreigners. A generalized regression model was used to examine an association of time trend with entries for Japanese and foreigners using data before 2019, to estimate the potentially reduced number of entries after 2020. The potentially reduced number of malaria cases was estimated by the potentially reduced number of entries for Japanese and foreigners after 2020 using a multivariable Poison regression model. The multivariable risk ratio (95% confidence intervals) of malaria case numbers per 100,000 persons increment of entries per day was 3.41 (1.50–7.77) for Japanese and 1.47 (0.92–2.35) for foreigners. During 2020, a potential reduction of 28 (95% confidence limit: 22–34) malaria cases was estimated, which accounted for 58% (52–63%) of malaria cases in Japan. These finding suggest that the stagnation of international traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of malaria cases in Japan. This model may be helpful for countries without indigenous malaria to predict future trends of imported malaria cases. MDPI 2022-01-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8775555/ /pubmed/35055702 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880 Text en © 2022 by the author. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Noda, Hiroyuki
A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title_full A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title_fullStr A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title_full_unstemmed A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title_short A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021
title_sort model to estimate the effect of international traffic on malaria cases: the case of japan from 1999 to 2021
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8775555/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35055702
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880
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