Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) is an important forest pest in China. It has many hosts and occurs in 20 provinces of China, causing huge economic and ecological losses. The northern temperate zone (north latitude 30–50° N) and the south temperate zone (south latitude 20–60° S) are areas suitable for this pest, although with irrigation, suitability is reduced and the suitable area is smaller, and so superimposed irrigation will make the suitable area smaller. With projected climate change, the suitable area of A. cinerarius will move northward. A model based on climate and available hosts for A. cinerarius indicates potential for its diffusion and colonization. This research provides a theoretical basis for preventing and controlling the invasion and spread of A. cinerarius. ABSTRACT: Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.