Sequential Data–Based Patient Similarity Framework for Patient Outcome Prediction: Algorithm Development

BACKGROUND: Sequential information in electronic medical records is valuable and helpful for patient outcome prediction but is rarely used for patient similarity measurement because of its unevenness, irregularity, and heterogeneity. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a patient similarity framework for patient outcome prediction that makes use of sequential and cross-sectional information in electronic medical record systems. METHODS: Sequence similarity was calculated from timestamped event sequences using edit distance, and trend similarity was calculated from time series using dynamic time warping and Haar decomposition. We also extracted cross-sectional information, namely, demographic, laboratory test, and radiological report data, for additional similarity calculations. We validated the effectiveness of the framework by constructing k–nearest neighbors classifiers to predict mortality and readmission for acute myocardial infarction patients, using data from (1) a public data set and (2) a private data set, at 3 time points—at admission, on Day 7, and at discharge—to provide early warning patient outcomes. We also constructed state-of-the-art Euclidean-distance k–nearest neighbor, logistic regression, random forest, long short-term memory network, and recurrent neural network models, which were used for comparison. RESULTS: With all available information during a hospitalization episode, predictive models using the similarity model outperformed baseline models based on both public and private data sets. For mortality predictions, all models except for the logistic regression model showed improved performances over time. There were no such increasing trends in predictive performances for readmission predictions. The random forest and logistic regression models performed best for mortality and readmission predictions, respectively, when using information from the first week after admission. CONCLUSIONS: For patient outcome predictions, the patient similarity framework facilitated sequential similarity calculations for uneven electronic medical record data and helped improve predictive performance.