Serum Lactate for Predicting Cardiac Arrest in the Emergency Department

Objectives: Early recognition and prevention of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) play an increasingly important role in the Chain of Survival. However, clinical tools for predicting IHCA in the emergency department (ED) are scanty. We sought to evaluate the role of serum lactate in predicting ED-based IHCA. Methods: Data were retrieved from 733,398 ED visits over a 7-year period in a tertiary medical centre. We selected one ED visit per person and excluded out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, children, or those without lactate measurements. Patient demographics, computerised triage information, and serum lactate levels were extracted. The initial serum lactate levels were grouped into normal (≤2 mmol/L), moderately elevated (2 < lactate ≤ 4), and highly elevated (>4 mmol/L) categories. The primary outcome was ED-based IHCA. Results: A total of 17,392 adult patients were included. Of them, 342 (2%) developed IHCA. About 50% of the lactate levels were normal, 30% were moderately elevated, and 20% were highly elevated. In multivariable analysis, the group with highly elevated lactate had an 18-fold increased risk of IHCA (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 18.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.5–28.2), compared with the normal lactate group. In subgroup analysis, the poor lactate-clearance group (<2.5%/h) was associated with a 7.5-fold higher risk of IHCA (adjusted OR, 7.5; 95%CI, 3.7–15.1) compared with the normal clearance group. Conclusions: Elevated lactate levels and poor lactate clearance were strongly associated with a higher risk of ED-based IHCA. Clinicians may consider a more liberal sampling of lactate in patients at higher risk of IHCA with follow-up of abnormal levels.