Cargando…

Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas

National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country’s species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gahbauer, Marcel A., Parker, Scott R., Wu, Joanna X., Harpur, Cavan, Bateman, Brooke L., Whitaker, Darroch M., Tate, Douglas P., Taylor, Lotem, Lepage, Denis
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782523/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35061743
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262116
_version_ 1784638335354929152
author Gahbauer, Marcel A.
Parker, Scott R.
Wu, Joanna X.
Harpur, Cavan
Bateman, Brooke L.
Whitaker, Darroch M.
Tate, Douglas P.
Taylor, Lotem
Lepage, Denis
author_facet Gahbauer, Marcel A.
Parker, Scott R.
Wu, Joanna X.
Harpur, Cavan
Bateman, Brooke L.
Whitaker, Darroch M.
Tate, Douglas P.
Taylor, Lotem
Lepage, Denis
author_sort Gahbauer, Marcel A.
collection PubMed
description National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country’s species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8782523
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-87825232022-01-22 Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas Gahbauer, Marcel A. Parker, Scott R. Wu, Joanna X. Harpur, Cavan Bateman, Brooke L. Whitaker, Darroch M. Tate, Douglas P. Taylor, Lotem Lepage, Denis PLoS One Research Article National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country’s species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change. Public Library of Science 2022-01-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8782523/ /pubmed/35061743 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262116 Text en © 2022 Gahbauer et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Gahbauer, Marcel A.
Parker, Scott R.
Wu, Joanna X.
Harpur, Cavan
Bateman, Brooke L.
Whitaker, Darroch M.
Tate, Douglas P.
Taylor, Lotem
Lepage, Denis
Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title_full Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title_fullStr Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title_full_unstemmed Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title_short Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas
title_sort projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a canadian system of protected areas
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782523/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35061743
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262116
work_keys_str_mv AT gahbauermarcela projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT parkerscottr projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT wujoannax projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT harpurcavan projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT batemanbrookel projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT whitakerdarrochm projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT tatedouglasp projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT taylorlotem projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas
AT lepagedenis projectedchangesinbirdassemblagesduetoclimatechangeinacanadiansystemofprotectedareas