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Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a cent...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782715/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1 |
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author | Siklos, Pierre L. |
author_facet | Siklos, Pierre L. |
author_sort | Siklos, Pierre L. |
collection | PubMed |
description | I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8782715 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87827152022-01-24 Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* Siklos, Pierre L. Int Econ Econ Policy Original Paper I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-01-22 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8782715/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Siklos, Pierre L. Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title | Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title_full | Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title_fullStr | Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title_full_unstemmed | Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title_short | Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
title_sort | did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782715/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1 |
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