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Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*

I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a cent...

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Autor principal: Siklos, Pierre L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782715/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1
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author Siklos, Pierre L.
author_facet Siklos, Pierre L.
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description I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1.
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spelling pubmed-87827152022-01-24 Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?* Siklos, Pierre L. Int Econ Econ Policy Original Paper I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-01-22 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8782715/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Siklos, Pierre L.
Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title_full Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title_fullStr Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title_full_unstemmed Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title_short Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
title_sort did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8782715/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1
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