Computerised tomography features of giant cell tumour of the knee are associated with local recurrence after extended curettage

BACKGROUND: Extended curettage has increasingly become the preferred treatment for giant cell tumour of bone (GCTB), but the high recurrence rate after curettage poses a major challenge for orthopaedic surgeons. Computed tomography (CT) is valuable in the evaluation of GCTB. Our aim was to identify specific features of GCTB around the knee in pre-operative CT images that might have prognostic value for local recurrence. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from 124 patients with primary GCTB around the knee who underwent extended curettage from 2010 through 2019. We collected demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data along with several CT-derived tumour characteristics. CT-derived tumor characteristics included tumour size, the distance between the tumour edge and articular surface (DTA), and destruction of posterior cortical bone (DPC). Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to select which variables to enter into multivariate logistic regression models and to determine significant factors affecting recurrence. RESULTS: The total recurrence rate was 21.0% (26/124), and the average follow-up time was 69.5 ± 31.2 months (24–127 months). Age, DTA (< 2 mm), and DPC were significantly related to recurrence, as determined by multivariate logistic regression. The C-index of the final model was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71 to 0.88), representing a good model for predicting recurrence. CONCLUSION: Identifying certain features of GCTB around the knee on CT has prognostic value for patients treated with extended curettage. A three-factor model predicts tumour recurrence well after extended curettage. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00264-021-05260-6.