Nomogram to predict the progression of patients with primary membranous nephropathy and nephrotic syndrome

BACKGROUND: The outcome of patients with primary membranous nephropathy (pMN) who present with nephrotic syndrome (NS) is variable and difficult to predict. The goal of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of progression for specific individuals. METHODS: This retrospective study involved biopsy-proven patients with pMN and NS treated between January 2012 and June 2018. The primary outcome of our investigation was progression, defined as a reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that was equal to or over 20% compared with baseline at the end of follow-up or the onset of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We used backwards stepwise logistic regression analysis to create a nomogram to predict prognosis. The model was validated internally using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: A total of 111 patients were enrolled. After a median follow-up of 40.0 months (range 12–92 months), 18.9% (21/111) patients showed progression. Backwards stepwise selection using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) identified the following four variables as independent risk factors for progression, which were all used in the nomogram: age ≥ 65 years [odds ratio (OR) 7.004; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.783–27.505; p = 0.005], Ln (sPLA2R-Ab) (OR 2.150; 95% CI 1.293–3.577; p = 0.003), Ln (proteinuria) (OR 5.939; 95% CI 1.055–33.436; p = 0.043) and Ln (Uα1m/Cr) (OR 2.808; 95% CI 1.035–7.619; p = 0.043). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram revealed good predictive ability, as indicated by a C-index of 0.888 (95% CI 0.814–0.940) and a bootstrap-corrected C-index of 0.869; calibration curves were also well fitted. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the nomogram score revealed significantly better discrimination than each of the three risk factors alone, including Ln (sPLA2R-Ab) [area under the curve (AUC) 0.769], Ln (proteinuria) (AUC 0.653) and Ln (Uα1m) (AUC 0.781) in the prediction of progression (p < 0.05). The optimal cutoff value of the nomogram score was 117.8 with a positive predictive value of 44.4% and a negative predictive value of 98.5%. CONCLUSION: The nomogram successfully achieved good predictive ability of progression for patients with pMN who present with NS. It can therefore help clinicians to individualize treatment plans and improve the outcome of pMN. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11255-021-02859-x.