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Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study
BACKGROUND: With the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the backgroun...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8785033/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35073868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2 |
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author | Wong, Ngai Sze Lee, Shui Shan Mitchell, Kate M. Yeoh, Eng-kiong Wang, Cheng |
author_facet | Wong, Ngai Sze Lee, Shui Shan Mitchell, Kate M. Yeoh, Eng-kiong Wang, Cheng |
author_sort | Wong, Ngai Sze |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: With the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the background of the varied SARS-CoV-2 prevalence internationally, we modelled the potential impacts of pre-event interventions on epidemic risk of holding a mass event when COVID-19 is under control. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Guangdong Province, China, where local virus transmission ceased to occur. A large-scale international trade fair was assumed to be held, with influx of people from overseas and rest of China over a short period of time, who participated for 2-week. Scenarios of pre-event intervention (none, quarantine arrangement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for participants) were compared. The influence of contact pattern, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the province and China, and testing coverage were examined in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In basecase scenario (no event), the epidemic has been under control since March 2020. The event would lead to the detection of 1% more confirmed cases by 31 July when community contact rate increases to pre-epidemic level. In event scenario without additional interventions, there would be 599 (93%) more new infections comparing with basecase scenario. To avert new infections, quarantining all participants before the event would be the most effective strategy, followed by quarantining all overseas participants and testing all other participants, and testing all participants before the event and on day 7. However, testing strategy is likely to be affected by the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the event province. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-event interventions are effective for reducing the risk of epidemic rebound caused by an international large-scale event. Universal testing for participants is likely to be an effective and feasible intervention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8785033 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87850332022-01-24 Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study Wong, Ngai Sze Lee, Shui Shan Mitchell, Kate M. Yeoh, Eng-kiong Wang, Cheng BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: With the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the background of the varied SARS-CoV-2 prevalence internationally, we modelled the potential impacts of pre-event interventions on epidemic risk of holding a mass event when COVID-19 is under control. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Guangdong Province, China, where local virus transmission ceased to occur. A large-scale international trade fair was assumed to be held, with influx of people from overseas and rest of China over a short period of time, who participated for 2-week. Scenarios of pre-event intervention (none, quarantine arrangement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for participants) were compared. The influence of contact pattern, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the province and China, and testing coverage were examined in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In basecase scenario (no event), the epidemic has been under control since March 2020. The event would lead to the detection of 1% more confirmed cases by 31 July when community contact rate increases to pre-epidemic level. In event scenario without additional interventions, there would be 599 (93%) more new infections comparing with basecase scenario. To avert new infections, quarantining all participants before the event would be the most effective strategy, followed by quarantining all overseas participants and testing all other participants, and testing all participants before the event and on day 7. However, testing strategy is likely to be affected by the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the event province. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-event interventions are effective for reducing the risk of epidemic rebound caused by an international large-scale event. Universal testing for participants is likely to be an effective and feasible intervention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2. BioMed Central 2022-01-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8785033/ /pubmed/35073868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Wong, Ngai Sze Lee, Shui Shan Mitchell, Kate M. Yeoh, Eng-kiong Wang, Cheng Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title | Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title_full | Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title_fullStr | Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed | Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title_short | Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
title_sort | impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of covid-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8785033/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35073868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2 |
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