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Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compa...

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Autores principales: Li, Rui, Li, Yan, Zou, Zhuoru, Liu, Yiming, Li, Xinghui, Zhuang, Guihua, Shen, Mingwang, Zhang, Lei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8786080/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35083192
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.801763
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author Li, Rui
Li, Yan
Zou, Zhuoru
Liu, Yiming
Li, Xinghui
Zhuang, Guihua
Shen, Mingwang
Zhang, Lei
author_facet Li, Rui
Li, Yan
Zou, Zhuoru
Liu, Yiming
Li, Xinghui
Zhuang, Guihua
Shen, Mingwang
Zhang, Lei
author_sort Li, Rui
collection PubMed
description Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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spelling pubmed-87860802022-01-25 Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study Li, Rui Li, Yan Zou, Zhuoru Liu, Yiming Li, Xinghui Zhuang, Guihua Shen, Mingwang Zhang, Lei Front Public Health Public Health Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-01-10 /pmc/articles/PMC8786080/ /pubmed/35083192 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.801763 Text en Copyright © 2022 Li, Li, Zou, Liu, Li, Zhuang, Shen and Zhang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Li, Rui
Li, Yan
Zou, Zhuoru
Liu, Yiming
Li, Xinghui
Zhuang, Guihua
Shen, Mingwang
Zhang, Lei
Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title_full Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title_fullStr Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title_short Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study
title_sort evaluating the impact of sars-cov-2 variants on the covid-19 epidemic and social restoration in the united states: a mathematical modelling study
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8786080/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35083192
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.801763
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