A Combination of Chest Radiography and Estimated Plasma Volume May Predict In-Hospital Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

Background: Patients with heart failure (HF) often display dyspnea associated with pulmonary congestion, along with intravascular congestion, both may result in urgent hospitalization and subsequent death. A combination of radiographic pulmonary congestion and plasma volume might screen patients with a high risk of in-hospital mortality in the emergency department (ED). Methods: In the pathway of dyspneic patients in emergency (PARADISE) cohort, patients admitted for acute HF were stratified into 4 groups based on high or low congestion score index (CSI, ranging from 0 to 3, high value indicating severe congestion) and estimated plasma volume status (ePVS) calculated from hemoglobin/hematocrit. Results: In a total of 252 patients (mean age, 81.9 years; male, 46.8%), CSI and ePVS were not correlated (Spearman rho <0 .10, p > 0.10). High CSI/high ePVS was associated with poorer renal function, but clinical congestion markers (i.e., natriuretic peptide) were comparable across CSI/ePVS categories. High CSI/high ePVS was associated with a four-fold higher risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted-OR, 95%CI = 4.20, 1.10-19.67) compared with low CSI/low ePVS, whereas neither high CSI nor ePVS alone was associated with poor prognosis (all-p-value > 0.10; P(interaction) = 0.03). High CSI/high ePVS improved a routine risk model (i.e., natriuretic peptide and lactate)(NRI = 46.9%, p = 0.02), resulting in high prediction of risk of in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.85, 0.82-0.89). Conclusion: In patients hospitalized for acute HF with relatively old age and comorbidity burdens, a combination of CSI and ePVS was associated with a risk of in-hospital death, and improved prognostic performance on top of a conventional risk model.