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Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study
INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8789117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35077447 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247894 |
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author | de Paiva, João Paulo Silva Magalhães, Mônica Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti da Silva, Leonardo Feitosa da Silva, Lucas Gomes do Carmo, Rodrigo Feliciano de Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire |
author_facet | de Paiva, João Paulo Silva Magalhães, Mônica Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti da Silva, Leonardo Feitosa da Silva, Lucas Gomes do Carmo, Rodrigo Feliciano de Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire |
author_sort | de Paiva, João Paulo Silva |
collection | PubMed |
description | INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability. RESULTS: Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8789117 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87891172022-01-26 Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study de Paiva, João Paulo Silva Magalhães, Mônica Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti da Silva, Leonardo Feitosa da Silva, Lucas Gomes do Carmo, Rodrigo Feliciano de Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire PLoS One Research Article INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability. RESULTS: Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability. Public Library of Science 2022-01-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8789117/ /pubmed/35077447 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247894 Text en © 2022 de Paiva et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article de Paiva, João Paulo Silva Magalhães, Mônica Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti da Silva, Leonardo Feitosa da Silva, Lucas Gomes do Carmo, Rodrigo Feliciano de Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title | Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title_full | Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title_fullStr | Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title_full_unstemmed | Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title_short | Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study |
title_sort | time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in brazil: an ecological study |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8789117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35077447 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247894 |
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