Development and validation of a machine learning method to predict intraoperative red blood cell transfusions in cardiothoracic surgery

Accurately predicting red blood cell (RBC) transfusion requirements in cardiothoracic (CT) surgery could improve blood inventory management and be used as a surrogate marker for assessing hemorrhage risk preoperatively. We developed a machine learning (ML) method to predict intraoperative RBC transfusions in CT surgery. A detailed database containing time-stamped clinical variables for all CT surgeries from 5/2014–6/2019 at a single center (n = 2410) was used for model development. After random forest feature selection, surviving features were inputs for ML algorithms using five-fold cross-validation. The dataset was updated with 437 additional cases from 8/2019–8/2020 for validation. We developed and validated a hybrid ML method given the skewed nature of the dataset. Our Gaussian Process (GP) regression ML algorithm accurately predicted RBC transfusion amounts of 0 and 1–3 units (root mean square error, RMSE 0.117 and 1.705, respectively) and our GP classification ML algorithm accurately predicted 4 + RBC units transfused (area under the curve, AUC = 0.826). The final prediction is the regression result if classification predicted < 4 units transfused, or the classification result if 4 + units were predicted. We developed and validated an ML method to accurately predict intraoperative RBC transfusions in CT surgery using local data.