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Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is theref...

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Autores principales: Grüter, Roman, Trachsel, Tim, Laube, Patrick, Jaisli, Isabel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8791496/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35081123
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976
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author Grüter, Roman
Trachsel, Tim
Laube, Patrick
Jaisli, Isabel
author_facet Grüter, Roman
Trachsel, Tim
Laube, Patrick
Jaisli, Isabel
author_sort Grüter, Roman
collection PubMed
description Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability.
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spelling pubmed-87914962022-01-27 Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change Grüter, Roman Trachsel, Tim Laube, Patrick Jaisli, Isabel PLoS One Research Article Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability. Public Library of Science 2022-01-26 /pmc/articles/PMC8791496/ /pubmed/35081123 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 Text en © 2022 Grüter et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Grüter, Roman
Trachsel, Tim
Laube, Patrick
Jaisli, Isabel
Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title_full Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title_fullStr Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title_full_unstemmed Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title_short Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
title_sort expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8791496/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35081123
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976
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