Incidence and predictors of chronic kidney disease in type-II diabetes mellitus patients attending at the Amhara region referral hospitals, Ethiopia: A follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is the severest form of kidney disease characterized by poor filtration. The magnitude of chronic kidney disease is trending upward in the last few years linked with the rapidly escalating cases of non-communicable chronic diseases, particularly diabetes mellitus. However, little is known about when this problem may occur, the incidence as well as predictors of chronic kidney disease among type-II diabetes mellitus patients. Thus, this study was conducted to determine the incidence, time to the occurrence, and predictors of chronic kidney disease in type-II diabetic patients attending the Amhara region referral hospitals, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted involving 415 participants with type-II diabetes mellitus that enrolled in the chronic follow-up from 2012 to 2017. Multivariable shared Frailty Weibull (Gamma) survival model was employed considering the hospitals as a clustering variable. Model fitness was checked by both the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and log-likelihood. Factors having a p-value of ≤0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered to enter the multivariable model. Variables that had a p-value of <0.05 with its corresponding 95% confidence level were deemed to be significant predictors of chronic kidney disease. RESULTS: The overall cumulative incidence of chronic kidney disease was 10.8% [95%; CI: 7.7–14.0%] with a median occurrence time of 5 years. The annual incidence rate was 193/10,000 [95%; CI: 144.28–258.78]. Having cardiovascular disease/s [AHR = 3.82; 95%CI: 1.4470–10.1023] and hypercholesterolemia [AHR = 3.31; 95% CI: 1.3323–8.2703] were predictors of chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSION: One out of every ten diabetic patients experienced chronic kidney disease. The median time to develop chronic kidney disease was five years. Hypercholesterolemia and cardiovascular diseases have escalated the hazard of developing CKD. Thus, health promotion and education of diabetic patients to optimize cholesterol levels and prevent cardiovascular disease is recommended to limit the occurrence of this life-threatening disease.