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SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reop...

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Autores principales: Wikle, Nathan B., Tran, Thu Nguyen-Anh, Gentilesco, Bethany, Leighow, Scott M., Albert, Emmy, Strong, Emily R., Brinda, Karel, Inam, Haider, Yang, Fuhan, Hossain, Sajid, Chan, Philip, Hanage, William P., Messick, Maria, Pritchard, Justin R., Hanks, Ephraim M., Boni, Maciej F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8791616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35080987
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
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author Wikle, Nathan B.
Tran, Thu Nguyen-Anh
Gentilesco, Bethany
Leighow, Scott M.
Albert, Emmy
Strong, Emily R.
Brinda, Karel
Inam, Haider
Yang, Fuhan
Hossain, Sajid
Chan, Philip
Hanage, William P.
Messick, Maria
Pritchard, Justin R.
Hanks, Ephraim M.
Boni, Maciej F.
author_facet Wikle, Nathan B.
Tran, Thu Nguyen-Anh
Gentilesco, Bethany
Leighow, Scott M.
Albert, Emmy
Strong, Emily R.
Brinda, Karel
Inam, Haider
Yang, Fuhan
Hossain, Sajid
Chan, Philip
Hanage, William P.
Messick, Maria
Pritchard, Justin R.
Hanks, Ephraim M.
Boni, Maciej F.
author_sort Wikle, Nathan B.
collection PubMed
description State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.
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spelling pubmed-87916162022-02-08 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics Wikle, Nathan B. Tran, Thu Nguyen-Anh Gentilesco, Bethany Leighow, Scott M. Albert, Emmy Strong, Emily R. Brinda, Karel Inam, Haider Yang, Fuhan Hossain, Sajid Chan, Philip Hanage, William P. Messick, Maria Pritchard, Justin R. Hanks, Ephraim M. Boni, Maciej F. Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022-01-26 /pmc/articles/PMC8791616/ /pubmed/35080987 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9868 Text en Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
Wikle, Nathan B.
Tran, Thu Nguyen-Anh
Gentilesco, Bethany
Leighow, Scott M.
Albert, Emmy
Strong, Emily R.
Brinda, Karel
Inam, Haider
Yang, Fuhan
Hossain, Sajid
Chan, Philip
Hanage, William P.
Messick, Maria
Pritchard, Justin R.
Hanks, Ephraim M.
Boni, Maciej F.
SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title_full SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title_fullStr SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title_full_unstemmed SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title_short SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
title_sort sars-cov-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three u.s. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
topic Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8791616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35080987
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
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