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Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis

CATEGORY: Ankle Arthritis; Ankle INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: Ankle arthrodesis and total ankle replacement are the most commonly performed procedures for surgical management of ankle arthritis. Arthrodesis provides effective pain relief but the rate of complications after arthrodesis is higher as it is mo...

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Autores principales: Bugarin, Amador, Shah, Akash A., Devana, Sai, Lee, Changhee, SooHoo, Nelson F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: SAGE Publications 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8792583/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2473011421S00122
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author Bugarin, Amador
Shah, Akash A.
Devana, Sai
Lee, Changhee
SooHoo, Nelson F.
author_facet Bugarin, Amador
Shah, Akash A.
Devana, Sai
Lee, Changhee
SooHoo, Nelson F.
author_sort Bugarin, Amador
collection PubMed
description CATEGORY: Ankle Arthritis; Ankle INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: Ankle arthrodesis and total ankle replacement are the most commonly performed procedures for surgical management of ankle arthritis. Arthrodesis provides effective pain relief but the rate of complications after arthrodesis is higher as it is more commonly performed in patients with comorbidities that preclude ankle replacement. Accurately risk- stratifying patients who undergo ankle arthrodesis would be of great utility, given the significant cost and morbidity associated with developing major perioperative complications. There is a paucity of accurate prediction models that can be used to pre- operatively risk-stratify patients for ankle arthrodesis. We aim to develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm for prediction of major perioperative complication after ankle arthrodesis as well as compare its performance against traditional predictive models based on logistic regression. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent ankle arthrodesis at any non-federal California hospital between 2015 and 2017. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days or major perioperative complication - venous thromboembolism within 30 days, myocardial infarction within 7 days, pneumonia within 7 days, systemic infection within 7 days, surgical site bleeding within 90 days, and wound complications within 90 days. We build ML and logistic regression models that span different classes of modeling approaches: XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Brier score, respectively. We utilize a partial dependence function to measure the importance of an individual feature by assessing the average effect in predicted risks when its value is altered. We rank the contribution of the included variables to the prediction of adverse outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1,084 patients met inclusion criteria for this study. There were 131 major complications or readmission (12.1%). The optimized XGBoost algorithm demonstrates higher discrimination (AUROC: 0.707 + 0.052) compared to LR (0.691 + 0.055). The receiver operating characteristic curves for the XGBoost and logistic regression models are visualized in Figure 1. XGBoost also outperforms the three other ML models. This model was well calibrated (Brier score: 0.103 + 0.001). The variables most important for the XGBoost model include diabetes, chronic kidney disease, implant complication, and major fracture. Five of the ten most important features for XGBoost were markedly less important for the traditional logistic regression model: male sex, prior hip fracture, cardiorespiratory failure, acute renal failure, and dialysis status. CONCLUSION: We report a ML algorithm for prediction of major perioperative complications after ankle arthrodesis. The optimized XGBoost model is well-calibrated and demonstrates superior risk prediction to logistic regression. This tool may identify and address potentially modifiable risk factors, helping to accurately risk-stratify patients and decrease likelihood of major complications. Notably, the predictors most important for XGBoost are different from those for logistic regression. This suggests that the superior discriminative capability of ML methods stems from their ability to capture complex non-linear relationships between variables that logistic regression is unable to detect.
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spelling pubmed-87925832022-01-28 Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis Bugarin, Amador Shah, Akash A. Devana, Sai Lee, Changhee SooHoo, Nelson F. Foot Ankle Orthop Article CATEGORY: Ankle Arthritis; Ankle INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: Ankle arthrodesis and total ankle replacement are the most commonly performed procedures for surgical management of ankle arthritis. Arthrodesis provides effective pain relief but the rate of complications after arthrodesis is higher as it is more commonly performed in patients with comorbidities that preclude ankle replacement. Accurately risk- stratifying patients who undergo ankle arthrodesis would be of great utility, given the significant cost and morbidity associated with developing major perioperative complications. There is a paucity of accurate prediction models that can be used to pre- operatively risk-stratify patients for ankle arthrodesis. We aim to develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm for prediction of major perioperative complication after ankle arthrodesis as well as compare its performance against traditional predictive models based on logistic regression. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent ankle arthrodesis at any non-federal California hospital between 2015 and 2017. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days or major perioperative complication - venous thromboembolism within 30 days, myocardial infarction within 7 days, pneumonia within 7 days, systemic infection within 7 days, surgical site bleeding within 90 days, and wound complications within 90 days. We build ML and logistic regression models that span different classes of modeling approaches: XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Brier score, respectively. We utilize a partial dependence function to measure the importance of an individual feature by assessing the average effect in predicted risks when its value is altered. We rank the contribution of the included variables to the prediction of adverse outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1,084 patients met inclusion criteria for this study. There were 131 major complications or readmission (12.1%). The optimized XGBoost algorithm demonstrates higher discrimination (AUROC: 0.707 + 0.052) compared to LR (0.691 + 0.055). The receiver operating characteristic curves for the XGBoost and logistic regression models are visualized in Figure 1. XGBoost also outperforms the three other ML models. This model was well calibrated (Brier score: 0.103 + 0.001). The variables most important for the XGBoost model include diabetes, chronic kidney disease, implant complication, and major fracture. Five of the ten most important features for XGBoost were markedly less important for the traditional logistic regression model: male sex, prior hip fracture, cardiorespiratory failure, acute renal failure, and dialysis status. CONCLUSION: We report a ML algorithm for prediction of major perioperative complications after ankle arthrodesis. The optimized XGBoost model is well-calibrated and demonstrates superior risk prediction to logistic regression. This tool may identify and address potentially modifiable risk factors, helping to accurately risk-stratify patients and decrease likelihood of major complications. Notably, the predictors most important for XGBoost are different from those for logistic regression. This suggests that the superior discriminative capability of ML methods stems from their ability to capture complex non-linear relationships between variables that logistic regression is unable to detect. SAGE Publications 2022-01-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8792583/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2473011421S00122 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
spellingShingle Article
Bugarin, Amador
Shah, Akash A.
Devana, Sai
Lee, Changhee
SooHoo, Nelson F.
Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title_full Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title_fullStr Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title_full_unstemmed Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title_short Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Complications after Ankle Arthrodesis
title_sort development of a machine learning algorithm for prediction of complications after ankle arthrodesis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8792583/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2473011421S00122
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