Dynamics of cytokines predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis C patients after viral eradication

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection induces profound alterations in the cytokine and chemokine signatures in peripheral blood. Clearance of HCV by antivirals results in host immune modification, which may interfere with immune-mediated cancer surveillance. Identifying HCV patients who remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following HCV eradication remains an unmet need. We hypothesized that antiviral therapy-induced immune reconstruction may be relevant to HCC development. AIM: To investigate the impact of differential dynamics of cytokine expression on the development of HCC following successful antiviral therapy. METHODS: One hundred treatment-naïve HCV patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/4) treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) or peginterferon/ribavirin who achieved sustained virologic response [SVR, defined as undetectable HCV RNA throughout 12 wk (SVR12) for the DAA group or 24 wk (SVR24) for the interferon group after completion of antiviral therapy] were enrolled since 2003. The primary endpoint was the development of new-onset HCC. Standard HCC surveillance (abdominal ultrasound and α-fetoprotein) was performed every six months during the follow-up. Overall, 64 serum cytokines were detected by the multiplex immunoassay at baseline and 24 wk after end-of-treatment. RESULTS: HCC developed in 12 of the 97 patients over 459 person-years after HCV eradication. In univariate analysis, the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), the dynamics of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) after antiviral therapy were significant HCC predictors. The multivariate Cox regression model showed that ΔTNF-α (≤ -5.7 pg/mL) was the most important risk factor for HCC (HR = 11.54, 95%CI: 2.27-58.72, P = 0.003 in overall cases; HR = 9.98, 95%CI: 1.88-52.87, P = 0.007 in the interferon group). An HCC predictive model comprising FIB-4, HbA1c, ΔTNF-α, and ΔTWEAK had excellent performance, with 3-, 5-, 10-, and 13-year areas under the curve of 0.882, 0.864, 0.903, and 1.000, respectively. The 5-year accumulative risks of HCC were 0%, 16.9%, and 40.0% in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: Downregulation of serum TNF-α significantly increases the risk of HCC after HCV eradication. A predictive model consisting of cytokine kinetics could ameliorate personalized HCC surveillance strategies for post-SVR HCV patients.