‘Finishing the race’ – a cohort study of weight and blood glucose change among the first 36,000 patients in a large-scale diabetes prevention programme

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme for England, “Healthier You”, encourages behaviour change regarding healthy eating and physical exercise among people identified to be at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The aim of this research was to examine change, and factors associated with change, in measures of HbA1c and weight in participants and completers of the programme between 2016 and 2019. METHODS: Participant-level data collected by programme service providers on referrals prior to March 2018 was analysed. Changes from baseline to both 6 months and completion in HbA1c and weight were examined using mixed effects linear regression, adjusting for patient characteristics, service provider and site. RESULTS: Completers had average improvements in HbA1c of 2.1 mmol/mol [95% CI: − 2.2, − 2.0] (0.19% [95% CI: − 0.20, − 0.18]) and reductions of 3.6 kg [95% CI: − 3.6, − 3.5] in weight, in absolute terms. Variation across the four providers was observed at both time points: two providers had significantly smaller average reductions in HbA1c and one provider had a significantly smaller average reduction in weight compared to the other providers. At both time points, ex- or current smokers had smaller reductions in HbA1c than non-smokers and those from minority ethnic groups lost less weight than White participants. For both outcomes, associations with other factors were small or null and variation across sites remained after adjustment for provider and case mix. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who completed the programme, on average, experienced improvements in weight and HbA1c. There was substantial variation in HbA1c change and smaller variation in weight loss between providers and across different sites. Aside from an association between HbA1c change and smoking, and between weight loss and ethnicity, results were broadly similar regardless of patient characteristics. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-022-01249-5.