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COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy

PROBLEM: After Italy’s first national restriction measures in 2020, a robust approach was needed to monitor the emerging epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at subnational level and provide data to inform the strengthening or easing of epidemic control measures. APPROACH: We adapted the...

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Autores principales: Riccardo, Flavia, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Urdiales, Alberto Mateo, Del Manso, Martina, Andrianou, Xanthi D, Bella, Antonino, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Carbone, Simona, De Vito, Tiziana, Maraglino, Francesco, Demicheli, Vittorio, Dario, Claudio, Coscioni, Enrico, Rezza, Giovanni, Urbani, Andrea, Merler, Stefano, Brusaferro, Silvio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: World Health Organization 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8795855/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35125541
http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.21.286317
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author Riccardo, Flavia
Guzzetta, Giorgio
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Del Manso, Martina
Andrianou, Xanthi D
Bella, Antonino
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Carbone, Simona
De Vito, Tiziana
Maraglino, Francesco
Demicheli, Vittorio
Dario, Claudio
Coscioni, Enrico
Rezza, Giovanni
Urbani, Andrea
Merler, Stefano
Brusaferro, Silvio
author_facet Riccardo, Flavia
Guzzetta, Giorgio
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Del Manso, Martina
Andrianou, Xanthi D
Bella, Antonino
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Carbone, Simona
De Vito, Tiziana
Maraglino, Francesco
Demicheli, Vittorio
Dario, Claudio
Coscioni, Enrico
Rezza, Giovanni
Urbani, Andrea
Merler, Stefano
Brusaferro, Silvio
author_sort Riccardo, Flavia
collection PubMed
description PROBLEM: After Italy’s first national restriction measures in 2020, a robust approach was needed to monitor the emerging epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at subnational level and provide data to inform the strengthening or easing of epidemic control measures. APPROACH: We adapted the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control rapid risk assessment tool by including quantitative and qualitative indicators from existing national surveillance systems. We defined COVID-19 risk as a combination of the probability of uncontrolled transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and of an unsustainable impact of COVID-19 cases on hospital services, adjusted in relation to the health system’s resilience. The monitoring system was implemented with no additional cost in May 2020. LOCAL SETTING: The infectious diseases surveillance system in Italy uses consistent data collection methods across the country’s decentralized regions and autonomous provinces. RELEVANT CHANGES: Weekly risk assessments using this approach were sustainable in monitoring the epidemic at regional level from 4 May 2020 to 24 September 2021. The tool provided reliable assessments of when and where a rapid increase in demand for health-care services would occur if control or mitigation measures were not increased in the following 3 weeks. LESSONS LEARNT: Although the system worked well, framing the risk assessment tool in a legal decree hampered its flexibility, as indicators could not be changed without changing the law. The relative complexity of the tool, the impossibility of real-time validation and its use for the definition of restrictions posed communication challenges.
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spelling pubmed-87958552022-02-05 COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy Riccardo, Flavia Guzzetta, Giorgio Urdiales, Alberto Mateo Del Manso, Martina Andrianou, Xanthi D Bella, Antonino Pezzotti, Patrizio Carbone, Simona De Vito, Tiziana Maraglino, Francesco Demicheli, Vittorio Dario, Claudio Coscioni, Enrico Rezza, Giovanni Urbani, Andrea Merler, Stefano Brusaferro, Silvio Bull World Health Organ Lessons from the Field PROBLEM: After Italy’s first national restriction measures in 2020, a robust approach was needed to monitor the emerging epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at subnational level and provide data to inform the strengthening or easing of epidemic control measures. APPROACH: We adapted the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control rapid risk assessment tool by including quantitative and qualitative indicators from existing national surveillance systems. We defined COVID-19 risk as a combination of the probability of uncontrolled transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and of an unsustainable impact of COVID-19 cases on hospital services, adjusted in relation to the health system’s resilience. The monitoring system was implemented with no additional cost in May 2020. LOCAL SETTING: The infectious diseases surveillance system in Italy uses consistent data collection methods across the country’s decentralized regions and autonomous provinces. RELEVANT CHANGES: Weekly risk assessments using this approach were sustainable in monitoring the epidemic at regional level from 4 May 2020 to 24 September 2021. The tool provided reliable assessments of when and where a rapid increase in demand for health-care services would occur if control or mitigation measures were not increased in the following 3 weeks. LESSONS LEARNT: Although the system worked well, framing the risk assessment tool in a legal decree hampered its flexibility, as indicators could not be changed without changing the law. The relative complexity of the tool, the impossibility of real-time validation and its use for the definition of restrictions posed communication challenges. World Health Organization 2022-02-01 2021-11-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8795855/ /pubmed/35125541 http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.21.286317 Text en (c) 2022 The authors; licensee World Health Organization. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution IGO License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/legalcode (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/) ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any reproduction of this article there should not be any suggestion that WHO or this article endorse any specific organization or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article's original URL.
spellingShingle Lessons from the Field
Riccardo, Flavia
Guzzetta, Giorgio
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Del Manso, Martina
Andrianou, Xanthi D
Bella, Antonino
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Carbone, Simona
De Vito, Tiziana
Maraglino, Francesco
Demicheli, Vittorio
Dario, Claudio
Coscioni, Enrico
Rezza, Giovanni
Urbani, Andrea
Merler, Stefano
Brusaferro, Silvio
COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title_full COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title_fullStr COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title_short COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy
title_sort covid-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, italy
topic Lessons from the Field
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8795855/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35125541
http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.21.286317
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