A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with colloid adenocarcinoma of the lung

BACKGROUND: Colloid adenocarcinoma of the lung is one of rare subtypes of pulmonary adenocarcinoma. The purpose of our study is to establish a predictive model for the overall survival of colloid adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 749 patients were separated from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2011 and 2015. Cox regression was performed to select the predictors of overall survival. The calibration curves, concordance index, the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the area under the curve were used to verify the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to illustrate and compare the overall survival of patients in different surgical groups. RESULTS: Multivariate analyses demonstrated clinical characteristics such as age, sex, race, site, tumor stage, stage T, metastatic sites at diagnosis, surgical treatment were associated with prognosis. In the nomogram, we could predict the probability of overall survival for patients. The concordance index of the novel nomogram was 0.849, which meant that the model had a good discriminated ability. A good consistency was indicated by the calibration curves in the probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. We plotted the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve was 0.905, 0.923, 0.885, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that overall survival was precisely distinguished by the different surgical status. The survival rate of patients in the surgery group was significantly higher than that of patients without surgery (P<0.0001). Segmentectomy had the highest survival rate than the lobectomy and wedge resection (P=0.0122). CONCLUSIONS: We constructed and validated a nomogram to help predict overall survival for colloid adenocarcinoma. Clinicians could predict individualized survival and give treatment recommendations.