Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in patients with non-metastatic primary adenocarcinoma of the bladder

BACKGROUND: To develop a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with non-metastatic primary adenocarcinoma of the bladder (NMACB). METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort study design. Patient data were obtained from the SEER database, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with CSS. A nomogram visualization model was established using R language software to predict survival rate. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in addition to calibration plots were used to assess the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 1,635 patients were included in the study. A multivariate Cox regression model indicated that age, histological type, grade, stage, and surgery were independent covariates associated with CSS. Using these prognostic factors, a nomogram was constructed. Harrell’s C indices for CSS were 0.729 in the training cohort and 0.716 in the validation cohort. AUC values were 0.769, 0.735 and 0.724 for 1, 3, and 5-year in the training cohort, and 0.738, 0.727 and 0.713 for 1, 3 and 5-year in the validation cohort, respectively. The AUC values and calibration plots indicated that the nomogram provided good predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram for predicting CSS in patients with NMACB was developed to assist clinicians in the accurate prediction of mortality risk to allow them to recommend a personalized treatment modality.