Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with lung large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Lung large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (L-LCNEC) is a rare and rapidly progressing lung cancer. We aimed to formulate a nomogram model to predict the survival of L-LCNEC patients. METHODS: Clinical data of patients with L-LCNEC, lung large cell cancer (L-LCC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) were derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The characteristics and prognosis of L-LCNEC were investigated by comparing with that of L-LCC and SCLC, respectively. All L-LCNEC patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group. A prognostic nomogram model was established for the overall survival (OS) in L-LCNEC patients. Furthermore, we enrolled 112 L-LCNEC patients from our department to validate the nomogram model. RESULT: 3,076 L-LCNEC, 11,163 L-LCC, and 78,097 SCLC patients were collected and enrolled in our analyses. Compared with L-LCC and SCLC, differences were observed in L-LCNEC in age, sex, race, marital status, SEER registry, TNM stage, and treatment. Furthermore, higher proportions of L-LCNEC were located at the upper lobe and unilateral lung compared with SCLC. L-LCNEC has similar survival to L-LCC, but better than SCLC. We identified that the age, gender, T, N, and M classification, and treatment were the independent prognostic predictors. A nomogram model was formulated to predict the OS. Calibration curves were performed to show optimal coherence between predicted probability of survival and actual survival, with a concordance index of 0.775. The external cohort included 112 patients and all of them underwent surgical treatment. The external validation demonstrated the reliability of this model. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram demonstrated its discrimination capability to predict the OS for L-LCNEC patients.