Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and other regions and countries to estimate, quickly and with limited data, a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture b...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, Jones, Charles I.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8799324/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35125563
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104318
Descripción
Sumario:We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and other regions and countries to estimate, quickly and with limited data, a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible scenarios for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening.

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