Co-clinical FDG-PET radiomic signature in predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in triple-negative breast cancer

PURPOSE: We sought to exploit the heterogeneity afforded by patient-derived tumor xenografts (PDX) to first, optimize and identify robust radiomic features to predict response to therapy in subtype-matched triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) PDX, and second, to implement PDX-optimized image features in a TNBC co-clinical study to predict response to therapy using machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: TNBC patients and subtype-matched PDX were recruited into a co-clinical FDG-PET imaging trial to predict response to therapy. One hundred thirty-one imaging features were extracted from PDX and human-segmented tumors. Robust image features were identified based on reproducibility, cross-correlation, and volume independence. A rank importance of predictors using ReliefF was used to identify predictive radiomic features in the preclinical PDX trial in conjunction with ML algorithms: classification and regression tree (CART), Naïve Bayes (NB), and support vector machines (SVM). The top four PDX-optimized image features, defined as radiomic signatures (RadSig), from each task were then used to predict or assess response to therapy. Performance of RadSig in predicting/assessing response was compared to SUV(mean), SUV(max), and lean body mass-normalized SUL(peak) measures. RESULTS: Sixty-four out of 131 preclinical imaging features were identified as robust. NB-RadSig performed highest in predicting and assessing response to therapy in the preclinical PDX trial. In the clinical study, the performance of SVM-RadSig and NB-RadSig to predict and assess response was practically identical and superior to SUV(mean), SUV(max), and SUL(peak) measures. CONCLUSIONS: We optimized robust FDG-PET radiomic signatures (RadSig) to predict and assess response to therapy in the context of a co-clinical imaging trial. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05489-8.