Decision tree model predicts live birth after surgery for moderate-to-severe intrauterine adhesions

BACKGROUND: After treatment of intrauterine adhesions, the rate of re-adhesion is high and the pregnancy outcome unpredictable and unsatisfactory. This study established and verified a decision tree predictive model of live birth in patients after surgery for moderate-to-severe intrauterine adhesions (IUAs). METHODS: A retrospective observational study initially comprised 394 patients with moderate-to-severe IUAs diagnosed via hysteroscopy. The patients underwent hysteroscopic adhesiolysis from January 2013 to January 2017, in a university-affiliated hospital. Follow-ups to determine the rate of live birth were conducted by telephone for at least the first postoperative year. A classification and regression tree algorithm was applied to establish a decision tree model of live birth after surgery. RESULTS: Within the final population of 374 patients, the total live birth rate after treatment was 29.7%. The accuracy of the model was 83.8%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.870 (95% CI 7.699–0.989). The root node variable was postoperative menstrual pattern. The predictive accuracy of the multivariate logistic regression model was 70.3%, and the AUC was 0.835 (95% CI 0.667–0.962). CONCLUSIONS: The decision tree predictive model is useful for predicting live birth after surgery for IUAs; postoperative menstrual pattern is a key factor in the model. This model will help clinicians make appropriate clinical decisions during patient consultations.