Comparisons of statistical distributions for cluster sizes in a developing pandemic

BACKGROUND: We consider cluster size data of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions for a number of different settings from recently published data. The statistical characteristics of superspreading events are commonly described by fitting a negative binomial distribution to secondary infection and cluster size data as an alternative to the Poisson distribution as it is a longer tailed distribution, with emphasis given to the value of the extra parameter which allows the variance to be greater than the mean. Here we investigate whether other long tailed distributions from more general extended Poisson process modelling can better describe the distribution of cluster sizes for SARS-CoV-2 transmissions. METHODS: We use the extended Poisson process modelling (EPPM) approach with nested sets of models that include the Poisson and negative binomial distributions to assess the adequacy of models based on these standard distributions for the data considered. RESULTS: We confirm the inadequacy of the Poisson distribution in most cases, and demonstrate the inadequacy of the negative binomial distribution in some cases. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of a superspreading event may be underestimated by use of the negative binomial distribution as much larger tail probabilities are indicated by EPPM distributions than negative binomial alternatives. We show that the large shared accommodation, meal and work settings, of the settings considered, have the potential for more severe superspreading events than would be predicted by a negative binomial distribution. Therefore public health efforts to prevent transmission in such settings should be prioritised. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01517-9.