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Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci

Southern Russia remains affected by West Nile virus (WNV). In the current study, we identified the spatial determinants of WNV distribution in an area with endemic virus transmission, with special reference to the urban settings, by mapping probable points of human infection acquisition and points o...

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Autores principales: Shartova, Natalia, Mironova, Varvara, Zelikhina, Svetlana, Korennoy, Fedor, Grishchenko, Mikhail
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8803152/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35100289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010145
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author Shartova, Natalia
Mironova, Varvara
Zelikhina, Svetlana
Korennoy, Fedor
Grishchenko, Mikhail
author_facet Shartova, Natalia
Mironova, Varvara
Zelikhina, Svetlana
Korennoy, Fedor
Grishchenko, Mikhail
author_sort Shartova, Natalia
collection PubMed
description Southern Russia remains affected by West Nile virus (WNV). In the current study, we identified the spatial determinants of WNV distribution in an area with endemic virus transmission, with special reference to the urban settings, by mapping probable points of human infection acquisition and points of virus detection in mosquitoes, ticks, birds, and mammals during 1999–2016. The suitability of thermal conditions for extrinsic virus replication was assessed based on the approach of degree-day summation and their changes were estimated by linear trend analysis. A generalized linear model was used to analyze the year-to-year variation of human cases versus thermal conditions. Environmental suitability was determined by ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt software. Human population density was used as an offset to correct for possible bias. Spatial analysis of virus detection in the environment showed significant contributions from surface temperature, altitude, and distance from water bodies. When indicators of location and mobility of the human population were included, the relative impact of factors changed, with roads becoming most important. When the points of probable human case infection were added, the percentage of leading factors changed only slightly. The urban environment significantly increased the epidemic potential of the territory and created quite favorable conditions for virus circulation. The private building sector with low-storey houses and garden plots located in the suburbs provided a connection between urban and rural transmission cycles.
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spelling pubmed-88031522022-02-01 Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci Shartova, Natalia Mironova, Varvara Zelikhina, Svetlana Korennoy, Fedor Grishchenko, Mikhail PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Southern Russia remains affected by West Nile virus (WNV). In the current study, we identified the spatial determinants of WNV distribution in an area with endemic virus transmission, with special reference to the urban settings, by mapping probable points of human infection acquisition and points of virus detection in mosquitoes, ticks, birds, and mammals during 1999–2016. The suitability of thermal conditions for extrinsic virus replication was assessed based on the approach of degree-day summation and their changes were estimated by linear trend analysis. A generalized linear model was used to analyze the year-to-year variation of human cases versus thermal conditions. Environmental suitability was determined by ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt software. Human population density was used as an offset to correct for possible bias. Spatial analysis of virus detection in the environment showed significant contributions from surface temperature, altitude, and distance from water bodies. When indicators of location and mobility of the human population were included, the relative impact of factors changed, with roads becoming most important. When the points of probable human case infection were added, the percentage of leading factors changed only slightly. The urban environment significantly increased the epidemic potential of the territory and created quite favorable conditions for virus circulation. The private building sector with low-storey houses and garden plots located in the suburbs provided a connection between urban and rural transmission cycles. Public Library of Science 2022-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8803152/ /pubmed/35100289 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010145 Text en © 2022 Shartova et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Shartova, Natalia
Mironova, Varvara
Zelikhina, Svetlana
Korennoy, Fedor
Grishchenko, Mikhail
Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title_full Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title_fullStr Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title_full_unstemmed Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title_short Spatial patterns of West Nile virus distribution in the Volgograd region of Russia, a territory with long-existing foci
title_sort spatial patterns of west nile virus distribution in the volgograd region of russia, a territory with long-existing foci
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8803152/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35100289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010145
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