Implications of fasting plasma glucose variability on the risk of incident peripheral artery disease in a population without diabetes: a nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Diabetes have been known as a traditional risk factor of developing peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, the study evaluating the impact of long-term glycemic variability on the risk of developing PAD is limited, especially in a general population without diabetes. METHODS: We included 152,931 individuals without diabetes from the Korean National Health Insurance Service–Health Screening Cohort. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) variability was measured using coefficient variance (FPG-CV), standard deviation (FPG-SD), and variability independent of the mean (FPG-VIM). RESULTS: A total of 16,863 (11.0%) incident cases of PAD were identified during a median follow-up of 8.3 years. Kaplan–Meier curves showed a progressively increasing risk of PAD in the higher quartile group of FPG variability than in the lowest quartile group (log rank P < 0.001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed the hazard ratio for PAD prevalence as 1.11 (95% CI 1.07–1.16, P < 0.001) in the highest FPG-CV quartile than in the lowest FPG-CV quartile after adjusting for confounding variables, including mean FPG. Similar degree of association was shown in the FPG-SD and FPG-VIM. In sensitivity analysis, the association between FPG variability and the risk of developing PAD persisted even after the participants were excluded based on previously diagnosed diseases, including stroke, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease, or current smokers or drinkers. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the effects of FPG variability on the risk of PAD were more powerful in subgroups of younger age, regular exercisers, and those with higher income. CONCLUSIONS: Increased long-term glycemic variability may have a significant prognostic effect for incident PAD in individuals without diabetes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01448-1.