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Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility

Human mobility is considered as one of the prominent non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the pandemic (positive effect from mobility to infection). Conversely, the spread of the pandemic triggered massive changes to people’s daily schedules by limiting their movement (negative...

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Autores principales: Rafiq, Rezwana, Ahmed, Tanjeeb, Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, Md
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8806672/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35128388
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100528
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author Rafiq, Rezwana
Ahmed, Tanjeeb
Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, Md
author_facet Rafiq, Rezwana
Ahmed, Tanjeeb
Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, Md
author_sort Rafiq, Rezwana
collection PubMed
description Human mobility is considered as one of the prominent non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the pandemic (positive effect from mobility to infection). Conversely, the spread of the pandemic triggered massive changes to people’s daily schedules by limiting their movement (negative effect from infection to mobility). The purpose of this study is to investigate this bi-directional relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 spread across U.S. counties during the early phase of the pandemic when infection rates were stabilizing and activity-travel behavior reflected a fairly steady return to normal following the drastic changes observed during the pandemic’s initial shock. In particular, we applied Structural Regression (SR) model to investigate a bi-directional relationship between COVID-19 infection rate and the degree of human mobility in a county in association with socio-demographic and location characteristics of that county, and state-wide COVID-19 policies. Combining U.S. county-level cross-sectional data from multiple sources, our model results suggested that during the study period, human mobility and infection rate in a county both influenced each other, but in an opposite direction. Metropolitan counties experienced higher infection and lower mobility than non-metropolitan counties in the early stage of the pandemic. Counties with highly infected neighboring counties and more external trips had a higher infection rate. During the study period, community mitigation strategies, such as stay at home order, emergency declaration, and non-essential business closure significantly reduced mobility whereas public mask mandate significantly reduced infection rates. The findings of this study will provide important insights to policy makers in understanding the two-way relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 spread and to derive mobility-driven policy actions accordingly.
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spelling pubmed-88066722022-02-02 Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility Rafiq, Rezwana Ahmed, Tanjeeb Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, Md Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect Article Human mobility is considered as one of the prominent non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the pandemic (positive effect from mobility to infection). Conversely, the spread of the pandemic triggered massive changes to people’s daily schedules by limiting their movement (negative effect from infection to mobility). The purpose of this study is to investigate this bi-directional relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 spread across U.S. counties during the early phase of the pandemic when infection rates were stabilizing and activity-travel behavior reflected a fairly steady return to normal following the drastic changes observed during the pandemic’s initial shock. In particular, we applied Structural Regression (SR) model to investigate a bi-directional relationship between COVID-19 infection rate and the degree of human mobility in a county in association with socio-demographic and location characteristics of that county, and state-wide COVID-19 policies. Combining U.S. county-level cross-sectional data from multiple sources, our model results suggested that during the study period, human mobility and infection rate in a county both influenced each other, but in an opposite direction. Metropolitan counties experienced higher infection and lower mobility than non-metropolitan counties in the early stage of the pandemic. Counties with highly infected neighboring counties and more external trips had a higher infection rate. During the study period, community mitigation strategies, such as stay at home order, emergency declaration, and non-essential business closure significantly reduced mobility whereas public mask mandate significantly reduced infection rates. The findings of this study will provide important insights to policy makers in understanding the two-way relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 spread and to derive mobility-driven policy actions accordingly. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022-03 2021-12-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8806672/ /pubmed/35128388 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100528 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Rafiq, Rezwana
Ahmed, Tanjeeb
Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, Md
Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title_full Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title_fullStr Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title_full_unstemmed Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title_short Structural modeling of COVID-19 spread in relation to human mobility
title_sort structural modeling of covid-19 spread in relation to human mobility
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8806672/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35128388
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100528
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