Estimating the consequences of a COVID-19 super spreader: A stochastic model of a night on the town

A stochastic model estimated the consequences of a COVID-19 super spreader event occurring in the local municipality of Stavanger, Norway as a result of a night on the town. The model imposed different infection control regulations and compared these different scenarios. For Stavanger’s 161 locations of service, secondary transmissions from a super spreader event was estimated to infect a median of 37, requiring the quarantining of 200 guests given no infection control regulations, 23 and 167 when imposing social distancing regulations and other hygienic infection control measures, 7 infected and 63 quarantined guests with restrictions placed on the guest capacity, and 4 infected and 57 quarantined guests with both forms of restriction in use.