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Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference

Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza’s unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explor...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Han, Shasha, Zhang, Ting, Lyu, Yan, Lai, Shengjie, Dai, Peixi, Zheng, Jiandong, Yang, Weizhong, Zhou, Xiao-Hua, Feng, Luzhao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8808434/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35127196
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011
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author Han, Shasha
Zhang, Ting
Lyu, Yan
Lai, Shengjie
Dai, Peixi
Zheng, Jiandong
Yang, Weizhong
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
Feng, Luzhao
author_facet Han, Shasha
Zhang, Ting
Lyu, Yan
Lai, Shengjie
Dai, Peixi
Zheng, Jiandong
Yang, Weizhong
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
Feng, Luzhao
author_sort Han, Shasha
collection PubMed
description Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza’s unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%–35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%–6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6%–2.8%). In 2020–2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3–19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2–14.0, of which 79.8%–98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019–2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4–14.4) and 10.2 (7.2–13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.
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spelling pubmed-88084342022-02-02 Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference Han, Shasha Zhang, Ting Lyu, Yan Lai, Shengjie Dai, Peixi Zheng, Jiandong Yang, Weizhong Zhou, Xiao-Hua Feng, Luzhao Engineering (Beijing) Research Public Health—Article Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza’s unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%–35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%–6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6%–2.8%). In 2020–2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3–19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2–14.0, of which 79.8%–98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019–2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4–14.4) and 10.2 (7.2–13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. 2023-02 2022-02-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8808434/ /pubmed/35127196 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011 Text en © 2022 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Research Public Health—Article
Han, Shasha
Zhang, Ting
Lyu, Yan
Lai, Shengjie
Dai, Peixi
Zheng, Jiandong
Yang, Weizhong
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
Feng, Luzhao
Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title_full Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title_fullStr Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title_full_unstemmed Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title_short Influenza’s Plummeting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference
title_sort influenza’s plummeting during the covid-19 pandemic: the roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and sars-cov-2 interference
topic Research Public Health—Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8808434/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35127196
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011
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