Establishing a Predictive Nomogram for Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 418 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma undergoing total thyroidectomy with cervical lymph node dissection were enrolled in the retrospective study from January 2016 to September 2019. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were performed to screen the clinicopathologic, laboratory and ultrasound (US) parameters influencing cervical lymph nodes metastasis and develop the predicting model. RESULTS: CLNM was proved in 34.4% (144/418) of patients. In the multivariate regression analysis, Male, Age < 45 years, Tumor size > 20mm, multifocality, ambiguous boundary, extracapsular invasion and US-suggested lymph nodes metastasis were independent risk factors of CLNM (p < 0.05). Prediction nomogram showed an excellent discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.940 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.888-0.991), and a good calibration. CONCLUSION: The established nomogram showed a good prediction of CLNM in patients with PTC. It is conveniently used and should be considered in the determination of surgical procedures.