School reopenings, COVID-19, and employment

Using a panel of United States counties, this study compares outcomes before and during the 2020–2021 school year between locations that started K-12 instruction on campus, remotely, or through a hybrid approach. Corroborating recent studies, we find comparatively larger increases of COVID-19 cases and deaths in locations using any in-person instruction. Within the same empirical framework, we present robust new evidence that employment was unaffected by this choice, even in counties with more vulnerable populations. We posit that opening schools did not improve employment due to policy uncertainty, supported by the fact that one-quarter of schools changed teaching methods mid-year.