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Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND: Exponential-like infection growth leading to peaks (denoted by inflection points [IP] or turning points) is usually the hallmark of infectious disease outbreaks, including coronaviruses. To determine the IPs of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), we applied the item response theory model t...

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Autores principales: Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh, Chien, Tsair-Wei, Shao, Yang, Hsieh, Ju-Hao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8812627/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35119031
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000028749
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author Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh
Chien, Tsair-Wei
Shao, Yang
Hsieh, Ju-Hao
author_facet Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh
Chien, Tsair-Wei
Shao, Yang
Hsieh, Ju-Hao
author_sort Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Exponential-like infection growth leading to peaks (denoted by inflection points [IP] or turning points) is usually the hallmark of infectious disease outbreaks, including coronaviruses. To determine the IPs of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), we applied the item response theory model to detect phase transitions for each country/region and characterize the IP feature on the temporal bar graph (TBG). METHODS: The IP (using the item difficulty parameter to locate) was verified by the differential equation in calculus and interpreted by the TBG with 2 virtual and real empirical data (i.e., from Collatz conjecture and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). Comparisons of IPs, R(2), and burst strength [BS = ln([Formula: see text]) denoted by the infection number at IP(Nip) and the item slope parameter(a) in item response theory were made for countries/regions and continents on the choropleth map and the forest plot. RESULTS: We found that the evolution of COVID-19 on the TBG makes the data clear and easy to understand, the shorter IP (=53.9) was in China and the longest (=247.3) was in Europe, and the highest R(2) (as the variance explained by the model) was in the US, with a mean R(2) of 0.98. We successfully estimated the IPs for countries/regions on COVID-19 in 2020 and presented them on the TBG. CONCLUSION: Temporal visualization is recommended for researchers in future relevant studies (e.g., the evolution of keywords in a specific discipline) and is not merely limited to the IP search in COVID-19 pandemics as we did in this study.
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spelling pubmed-88126272022-02-18 Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh Chien, Tsair-Wei Shao, Yang Hsieh, Ju-Hao Medicine (Baltimore) 4400 BACKGROUND: Exponential-like infection growth leading to peaks (denoted by inflection points [IP] or turning points) is usually the hallmark of infectious disease outbreaks, including coronaviruses. To determine the IPs of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), we applied the item response theory model to detect phase transitions for each country/region and characterize the IP feature on the temporal bar graph (TBG). METHODS: The IP (using the item difficulty parameter to locate) was verified by the differential equation in calculus and interpreted by the TBG with 2 virtual and real empirical data (i.e., from Collatz conjecture and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). Comparisons of IPs, R(2), and burst strength [BS = ln([Formula: see text]) denoted by the infection number at IP(Nip) and the item slope parameter(a) in item response theory were made for countries/regions and continents on the choropleth map and the forest plot. RESULTS: We found that the evolution of COVID-19 on the TBG makes the data clear and easy to understand, the shorter IP (=53.9) was in China and the longest (=247.3) was in Europe, and the highest R(2) (as the variance explained by the model) was in the US, with a mean R(2) of 0.98. We successfully estimated the IPs for countries/regions on COVID-19 in 2020 and presented them on the TBG. CONCLUSION: Temporal visualization is recommended for researchers in future relevant studies (e.g., the evolution of keywords in a specific discipline) and is not merely limited to the IP search in COVID-19 pandemics as we did in this study. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2022-02-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8812627/ /pubmed/35119031 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000028749 Text en Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.
spellingShingle 4400
Ho, Sam Yu-Chieh
Chien, Tsair-Wei
Shao, Yang
Hsieh, Ju-Hao
Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title_full Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title_short Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of covid-19 pandemic
topic 4400
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8812627/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35119031
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000028749
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