Investigation of the prognostic predictive value of serum lipid profiles in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: roles of sex and hypermetabolism

The prognostic predictive value of lipid profiling in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to clarify the value of the levels of serum lipids, including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and triglycerides (TG), for predicting the prognosis in ALS. This was a single-center retrospective study of 78 patients with ALS. The serum lipid profiles at the first hospital visit after symptom onset were analyzed to determine the correlations of lipids with survival and physical parameters, including nutritional, respiratory, and metabolic conditions. The cutoff level for high HDL was defined as the third quartile, while that of low LDL and TG, as the first quartile. Hypermetabolism was defined as the ratio of resting energy expenditure to lean soft tissue mass ≥ 38 kcal/kg. High HDL was an independent factor for poor prognosis in all patients (hazards ratio [HR]: 9.87, p < 0.001) in the Cox proportional hazard model, including %vital capacity and the monthly decline rate in body mass index and the Revised Amyotrophic Lateral Functional Rating Scale score from symptom onset to diagnosis. Low LDL was a factor for poor prognosis (HR: 6.59, p = 0.017) only in women. Moreover, subgroup analyses with log-rank tests revealed that the prognostic predictive value of high HDL was evident only in the presence of hypermetabolism (p = 0.005). High HDL predicts poor prognosis in all patients, whereas low LDL, only in women. Hypermetabolism and high HDL synergistically augment the negative effect on prognosis.