Potential greenhouse gas risk led by renewable energy crowding out nuclear power

Increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) is one of the main approaches for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. However, we find a GHG increase risk associated with increasing VRE: VRE crowds out nuclear power (VRECON) but cannot fully obtain the left market share, which is obtained by fossil energy. We developed an integrated dispatch-and-investment model to estimate the VRECON GHG-boosting effect in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In the above two markets, VRECON could increase the annual GHG emission by up to 136 MTCO(2)eq totally. Furthermore, we find that the VRECON GHG-boosting effect can be mitigated by combining wind and solar power. We argue that, for GHG abatement, policymakers should require the proper mix of wind and solar power in renewable portfolio standards and control nuclear power’s retirement pace to match the progress of VRE growth.