Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Progression From Paroxysmal to Persistent Atrial Fibrillation in the Long Term After Catheter Ablation

BACKGROUND: Aging is significantly associated with the incidence and progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence. This study aimed to evaluate the potential predictive value of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) for progression from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to persistent AF (PsAF) after catheter ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 269 patients with AF (154 patients with PAF and 115 patients with PsAF, respectively) were prospectively enrolled, and all patients with PAF at baseline were regularly followed up to determine whether and when they should progress to PsAF after catheter ablation therapy. Baseline relative LTL was measured by quantitative real-time PCR (rt-PCT). There was a significant negative association between LTL and age (r = −0.23, p < 0.001). Patients with PsAF had significantly shorter LTL than those with PAF. After a mean follow-up of 854.9 ± 18.7 d, progression events occurred in 35 out of the 154 patients with PAF. Those progressed patients with PAF were older (70.9 ± 8.0 vs. 62.3 ± 10.3, p < 0.001) and had shorter LTL (1.2 ± 0.3 vs. 1.5 ± 0.3, p < 0.001) than those who did not. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed a significant value of LTL in distinguishing patients with PAF from patients with PsAF, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.63 (95% CI 0.56–0.70, p < 0.001), and the optimal cut-off value of LTL was 1.175, with a sensitivity and specificity of 56.03 and 82.04%, respectively. All patients with PAF were divided into two subgroups according to the optimal cut-off point of LTL calculated by the ROC curve analysis: high LTL group (≥1.175) and low LTL group (<1.175). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that PAF patients with shorter LTL had a significantly higher rate of progression after catheter ablation (40.5% vs. 18.8%, log-rank test p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model indicated that LTL [hazard ratio (HR): 2.71, 95% CI 1.36–5.42, p = 0.005] was an independent predictor for progression from PAF to PsAF after catheter ablation therapy, but HATCH score was not (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.68–1.52, p = 0.923). CONCLUSION: Leukocyte telomere length was significantly associated with AF types. LTL was independently associated with progression from PAF to PsAF after catheter ablation therapy. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, Registration Number: ChiCTR1900021341.