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Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers

In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysi...

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Autores principales: Apenteng, Ofosuhene O., Osei, Prince P., Ismail, Noor Azina, Chiabai, Aline
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8819035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35198841
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.01.002
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author Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.
Osei, Prince P.
Ismail, Noor Azina
Chiabai, Aline
author_facet Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.
Osei, Prince P.
Ismail, Noor Azina
Chiabai, Aline
author_sort Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67,801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04, were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10,000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration, respectively. This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true [Formula: see text] and the transmission rate [Formula: see text] associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia. It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration.
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spelling pubmed-88190352022-02-22 Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers Apenteng, Ofosuhene O. Osei, Prince P. Ismail, Noor Azina Chiabai, Aline Infect Dis Model Original Research Article In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67,801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04, were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10,000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration, respectively. This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true [Formula: see text] and the transmission rate [Formula: see text] associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia. It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration. KeAi Publishing 2022-01-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8819035/ /pubmed/35198841 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.01.002 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.
Osei, Prince P.
Ismail, Noor Azina
Chiabai, Aline
Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title_full Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title_fullStr Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title_full_unstemmed Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title_short Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
title_sort analysing the impact of migration on hiv/aids cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8819035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35198841
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.01.002
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