Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index is Associated with Prevalence and New-Appearance of Atrial Fibrillation in Japanese Urban Residents: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional and Cohort Study

AIM: Physiological tests to assess systemic vascular function are not included in the risk score for atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to examine whether cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI), a systemic arterial stiffness parameter, is associated with the presence of AF in Japanese general population. METHODS: A cross-sectional study (N = 47,687) and a cohort study (N = 5418, four consecutive years) in Japanese urban residents who participated in annual health screening were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 164 subjects (0.34%) had AF in the cross-sectional data. After propensity score matching for age and gender, logistic regression analysis revealed that CAVI is independently associated with AF, as are body mass index and estimated glomerular filtration rate. In a 4-year cohort study, 22 subjects (0.41%) with new-appearance of AF showed higher CAVI at baseline than those without. In the receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve, which is a measure of predictability, of CAVI for the new-appearance of AF was 0.747, and the cut-off value of CAVI was 8.0. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that the cumulative incidence of new-appearance of AF was higher in subjects with CAVI ≥8.0 compared to those with CAVI <8.0. In Cox-proportional hazards analysis, CAVI ≥8.0 as well as gender were identified as independent predictors for the new-appearance of AF, whereas age ≥65 years was not. CONCLUSION: Increased CAVI may represent a major modifiable risk factor for the development of AF. Studies are needed to confirm that CAVI is a predictor of AF independent of various AF risk factors and that CAVI-lowering interventions can prevent new-appearance or recurrence of AF.