The Impact of Health Investment on Industrial Structure: “Spillover” or “Crowding Out”?—Evidence From Emerging Market Countries

Using national dynamic panel data from 21 emerging markets between 1999 and 2020 and bidirectional fixed effect and threshold regression methods, this paper evaluated the impact of health investment on industrial structure upgrading from two aspects of economic output and economic structure. The results showed that: (1) public health investment and private health investment have a crowding out effect on the added value of primary and secondary industries, and the crowding out effect of public health investment is greater than that of private health investment; (2) Public health investment and private health investment have a spillover effect on the added value of the tertiary industry, and the spillover effect of public health investment is greater than that of private health investment; (3) Both public and private health investment contribute to the transfer of the labor force to the tertiary industry, and tests showed the baseline regression results were robust and reliable; (4) The relationship between health investment and industrial structure upgrading was non-linear. As per capital GDP increases, the inhibition effect of public health investment on industrial structure upgrading gradually weakens whilst the promotion effect of private health investment on industrial structure upgrading gradually increases. The results of this study clarify how health investment affects industrial structure, and offers new guidance for health investment policy formulation in emerging market countries.