Assessment of diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers to assess lung consolidation in calves with induced bacterial pneumonia using receiver operating characteristic curves

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most economically significant disease for cattle producers in the U.S. Cattle with advanced lung lesions at harvest have reduced average daily gain, yield grades, and carcass quality outcomes. The identification of biomarkers and clinical signs that accurately predict lung lesions could benefit livestock producers in determining a BRD prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are graphical plots that illustrate the diagnostic ability of a biomarker or clinical sign. Previously we used the area under the ROC curve (AUC) to identify cortisol, hair cortisol, and infrared thermography imaging as having acceptable (AUC > 0.7) diagnostic accuracy for detecting pain in cattle. Herein, we used ROC curves to assess the sensitivity and specificity of biomarkers and clinical signs associated with lung lesions after experimentally induced BRD. We hypothesized pain biomarkers and clinical signs assessed at specific time points after induction of BRD could be used to predict lung consolidation at necropsy. Lung consolidation of > 10% was retrospectively assigned at necropsy as a true positive indicator of BRD. Calves with a score of < 10% were considered negative for BRD. The biomarkers and clinical signs analyzed were serum cortisol; infrared thermography (IRT); mechanical nociceptive threshold (MNT); substance P; kinematic gait analysis; a visual analog scale (VAS); clinical illness score (CIS); computerized lung score (CLS); average activity levels; prostaglandin E(2) metabolite (PGEM); serum amyloid A; and rectal temperature. A total of 5,122 biomarkers and clinical signs were collected from 26 calves, of which 18 were inoculated with M. haemolytica. All statistics were performed using JMP Pro 14.0. Results comparing calves with significant lung lesions to those without yielded the best diagnostic accuracy (AUC > 0.75) for right front stride length at 0 h; gait velocity at 32 h; VAS, CIS, average activity and rumination levels, step count, and rectal temperature, all at 48 h; PGEM at 72 h; gait distance at 120 h; cortisol at 168 h; and IRT, right front force and serum amyloid A, all at 192 h. These results show ROC analysis can be a useful indicator of the predictive value of pain biomarkers and clinical signs in cattle with induced bacterial pneumonia. AUC values for VAS score, average activity levels, step count, and rectal temperature seemed to yield good diagnostic accuracy (AUC > 0.75) at multiple time points, while MNT values, substance P concentrations, and CLS did not (all AUC values < 0.75).