Reopening strategies, mobility and COVID-19 infections in Europe: panel data analysis

OBJECTIVES: Characterise the reopening policies of European countries after the first wave of infections and evaluate how these policies affected economic activity and subsequent infections. STUDY DESIGN: Using publicly available data, we construct a database of reopening policy announcements by country authorities and develop measures related to the speed and timing of reopening. Using panel data regressions, we then assess how a country’s reopening action subsequently affected its mobility and COVID-19 infections. Samples of 22 European countries used in the study comprise: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and the UK. MAIN OUTCOMES: Mobility index as well as COVID-19 case and death counts. RESULTS: Reopening policies are associated with a 1.5 percentage point increase in mobility and a 4% increase in subsequent infections after 2 weeks. However, some reopening strategies are associated with lower infection risk. In particular, early and fast reopeners saw 5%–10% increases in infections relative to those that opened later and adopted a gradual approach. The sequencing of sectoral reopenings matters, with infection amplification effects larger for some sectors (like retail and events) than others (like schools). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest some merit of gradual and late reopening strategies with a careful sequencing of sectoral openings based on their infection amplification risks.