Cumulative triglyceride-glucose index is a risk for CVD: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Previous studies has shown a significant relationship between baseline triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the long-term effect of TyG index and incident CVD remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the association between cumulative TyG index and the risk of CVD. METHOD: In this study, we recruited individuals participating in Kailuan Study from 2006 to 2013 without stroke, myocardial infarction, and cancer in the four consecutive examinations. Cumulative TyG index was calculated by multiplying the average TyG index and the time between the two consecutive examinations. Cumulative TyG index levels were categorized into four quartile groups: Q1 group, ≤ 50.65 (as reference group), Q2 group, 50.65–53.86, Q3 group, 53.86–57.44, Q4 group, > 57.44. The association between cumulative TyG index and the risk of CVD was estimated by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. RESULT: A total of 44,064 individuals participated in the final analysis. After a mean follow-up of 6.52 ± 1.14 years, incident CVD, MI and stroke occurred in 2057, 395 and 1695, respectively. The risk of developing CVD increased with the quartile of cumulative in TyG index, after adjustment for multiple potential confounders, the HR for CVD events were 1.25 (1.08–1.44) in Q2, 1.22 (1.05–1.40) in Q3 and 1.39 (1.21–1.61) in Q4, compared to Q1 group. The longer duration of higher TyG index exposure was significantly associated with increased CVD risk. Similar results were obtained in the subgroup and sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: Cumulative TyG index was associated with increased risk of CVD. Maintaining an appropriate level of TG and FBG within the desirable range and better control of cumulative TyG index are important for prevention of CVD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01456-1.