Prediction of miscarriage in first trimester by serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin within 9 weeks of gestation

PURPOSE: To predict miscarriage outcome within 12 weeks of gestational age by evaluating values of serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG) within 9 weeks of gestation. METHODS: One hundred sixty-five women with singleton pregnancies were retrospectively studied. Estradiol, progesterone and β-HCG levels were measured at 5–6 weeks of gestation and the measurements were repeated at 7–9 weeks. According to pregnancy outcome at 12 weeks of gestation, 71 cases were categorized into miscarriage group, and 94 cases into group of normal pregnancy. Each group was further divided into 5–6 and 7–9 weeks of gestation sub-group. Predictive values of estradiol, progesterone and β- HCG levels at 5–6 weeks and 7–9 weeks of gestation were analyzed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression. RESULTS: Serum levels of estradiol at 7–9 weeks identified miscarriage with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.866 (95% CI 0. 793 ~ 0.938, P = 0.000), diagnostic cutoff value of 576 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.804, and specificity of 0.829 respectively at the optimal threshold, according to Youden index. Progesterone levels at 7–9 weeks were with AUC of 0.766 (95% CI 0. 672 ~ 0.861, P = 0.000), cutoff value of 15.27 ng/ml, sensitivity of 0.921, and specificity of 0.558, respectively; Estradiol at 5–6 weeks were with AUC of 0.709 (95% CI 0. 616 ~ 0.801, P < 0.001), the diagnostic cutoff value of 320 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.800, and specificity of 0.574, respectively. The performance of the dual markers of estradiol and progesterone analysis (AUC 0.871, CI 0.793–0.950), three-markers analysis (AUC 0.869, CI 0.759–0.980)were slightly better than the single marker at 7-9 weeks. β-HCG or progesterone provide additional utility of estradiol prediction at 5–6 weeks with AUC 0.770 (0.672–0.869) for β-HCG and estradiol, AUC0.768(CI 0.670–0.866) for β-HCG, estradiol and progesterone and AUC 0.739 (CI 0.651–0.827) for progesterone and estradiol. CONCLUSIONS: Low serum levels such as dual of estradiol and progesterone or estradiol alone at 7–9 weeks, β-HCG or progesterone combing estradiol at 5–6 weeks of gestation can be used better to predict miscarriage in first trimester.