Sustainable Growth Drivers: Unveiling the Role Played by Carbon Productivity

In global climate change, improving carbon productivity holds great importance for China’s sustainable growth. Based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and cities from 1997–2017, the drivers, spatial effects, and convergence characteristics of carbon productivity in China are explored by combining a factor decomposition framework and a spatial panel model. The findings show that (1) China’s carbon productivity shows continuous positive growth, and the substitution effect of capital for energy dominates this changing pattern; (2) There is a β-convergence trend and club convergence in China’s carbon productivity, and the spatial technology spillover accelerates the convergence rate; (3) With its accelerated industrial transformation and technological upgrading, China’s current carbon productivity converges faster than its earlier stage, and the role of physical capital investment has gradually shifted to suppression. In contrast, the positive push of human capital investment has been strengthened; (4) From the perspective of the realization mechanism, the convergence of carbon productivity in China mainly comes from the convergence of energy restructuring and capital-energy substitution. These findings can help China narrow the inter-provincial carbon productivity gap in terms of improving factor structure, upgrading technology, etc., and provide references for sustainable growth decision making in China and around the world.